STILLWATER, Okla. — February 22, 2026 (The Oklahoma Post)
There’s a particular kind of confusion that emerges in Yahoo Finance comment sections when retail investors try to understand why a stock keeps falling despite what looks like good news. It’s the financial equivalent of watching someone insist the car is fine while smoke pours from the engine.
I was that person once, actually. Jonathan Joyce, Mayor Will Joyce’s older brother, decided to steal his mom’s car during a high school lunch break and take us all to Hooters for the day. The car broke down near a truck stop in North Edmond. When Jonathan’s parents found out, Will suddenly became the prized younger son. The incident taught me something about the Joyce family: they have a way of not dealing with problems until they become impossible to ignore.
Which brings us to Stillwater’s $7 million investment in USA Rare Earth.
USA Rare Earth (USAR) closed at $17.23 on February 20, 2026, down 8.5% for the week and down 61% from its October 2025 peak of $43.98. This is a company that just received a Letter of Intent for $1.6 billion in government funding in late January. The stock jumped 20% on that announcement, then proceeded to give back all those gains and then some.
The Yahoo Finance comments tell the story of retail investor bewilderment better than any financial analysis could. One user named “Olivia” claimed insider knowledge about CFO stock sales. Another blamed “activist investor shorting the whole US Rare Earth sector” since January 30th. A third speculated about tariff refunds making rare earth funding uncertain.
What none of them mentioned: USA Rare Earth has never generated a dollar of revenue from operations. Not one dollar. Ever. And the government subsidies didn’t start with the federal billions announced in January. Taxpayers in Stillwater and across Oklahoma committed $8.2 million in direct cash to this company back in 2022, with millions more in tax benefits and performance incentives still on the table.
That was nearly four years ago. Production was supposed to start in 2023. The facility still hasn’t shipped a commercial magnet.
The Money Trail: Local, State, Federal
Before we examine why the stock keeps falling, let’s establish exactly how much public money USA Rare Earth has received and from whom.
City of Stillwater (2022): $7.0 million in upfront Tax Increment Financing secured by a first lien on the property, formerly owned by a Texas oil services company, plus a five year property tax exemption (active since 2023) and a commitment to rebate 90% of property taxes back to the company after the exemption expires. The tax benefits alone could be worth several million additional dollars over the life of the agreement.
State of Oklahoma (2022): $1.2 million from the Governor’s Quick Action Closing Fund, disbursed in two $600,000 installments when the company hit $1 million and $2 million in renovation spending. Full amount received by April 6, 2023. Additionally, enrollment in the Quality Jobs Program providing up to 5% of qualifying payroll back as cash rebates for 10 years, potentially worth $2.8 million if the company actually creates the promised 100 jobs at $60,000+ median wages.
Supposedly.
Worth noting, the roads in the area are still trash with no showings of infrastructure improvements to the city, paid by the creator of new traffic.
Federal Government (2026): $277 million in “direct funding” (actually an equity swap where taxpayers take dilution risk whether or not full funding materializes) plus access to a $1.3 billion senior secured loan tied to milestone achievements through 2028. Pompeo is on the BOD.
Private Investment (2026): $1.5 billion PIPE transaction anchored by Inflection Point, the same SPAC that took USA Rare Earth public. Michael Blitzer chairs both entities. He sold $32.95 million in company stock in August 2025 at $15.75 per share, then his SPAC anchored the January 2026 PIPE at $21.50 per share, 36% higher than his summer sales.
The total public subsidy commitment, combining confirmed cash already disbursed with potential tax benefits and performance payments, exceeds $11 million from state and local sources alone. Add the federal billions and you’re looking at the most heavily subsidized pre revenue manufacturing startup in Oklahoma history.
What Stillwater Was Promised in 2022
On June 9, 2022, Governor Kevin Stitt and Mayor Will Joyce stood together at a press conference announcing what Stitt called “truly a once in a generation announcement for our city, for our state, for our country.”
USA Rare Earth would invest more than $100 million to convert a 310,000 square foot former Total Energy building at 100 West Airport Road into America’s first domestic rare earth magnet manufacturing facility. The company would create at least 100 jobs with median wages around $60,000, generating $6.6 million in annual payroll. Production would begin in 2023.
Mayor Joyce declared it “a win for Stillwater, and it’s a win for Oklahoma.” Oklahoma Secretary of Energy and Environment Ken Wagner framed it as essential to national security: “To increase national security, the U.S. must secure a domestic, reliable and sustainable supply of critical rare earth elements.”. Then the Colorado plant supposedly created a couple magnets to prove they could.
The Stillwater City Council, acting as the Stillwater Economic Development Authority, had approved the $7 million TIF package three days earlier on June 6, 2022. The state had quietly executed its $1.2 million Closing Fund agreement nearly two months before the public announcement, on April 15, 2022.
Both agreements contained clawback provisions. The state required at least $50 million in investment and 100 new jobs. The city set development phase deadlines of March 31, 2026 and June 30, 2027, with the right to demand immediate repayment of the full $7 million if USA Rare Earth defaulted.
Here’s what actually happened.
The Numbers That Matter: February 2026 Edition
Cash: The company expects to report over $350 million in cash and cash equivalents as of December 31, 2025. Following the $1.5 billion PIPE closing in late January 2026, that number jumped substantially higher. Add in the $277 million “direct funding” equity swap and eventual $1.3 billion loan from the Commerce Department, and USA Rare Earth has access to billions in capital.
Revenue: Zero. As of Q3 2025, the company reported no operating revenues. The Motley Fool analysis from February 17, 2026 states plainly: “USA Rare Earth has no commercial operations or operating revenue at the moment.” Analysts project the company could earn $50 million in revenue in 2026 and $281 million in 2027, but those are projections for production that hasn’t started yet.
Losses: For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, USA Rare Earth posted a net loss of $248 million. Of that, $216.8 million was non cash fair value losses on financial instruments (warrants and earnouts from the SPAC deal), but that still leaves $31.2 million in actual operating losses. For full year 2024, the company lost $16.4 million. For 2025, the company guided to operating expenses and operating losses of $56 million to $62 million.
Cash Burn: Operating activities used $21.1 million in cash for the nine months through September 30, 2025. That’s about $2.3 million per month disappearing into facility construction, R&D, and overhead. Capital expenditures for 2025 were projected at $37 million to $43 million.
Production Status: The first batch of sintered permanent rare earth magnets was produced in the company’s small Innovations Lab in January 2025. This was not commercial production. Full commissioning of the first 600 metric ton production line is targeted for Q1 2026, with commercial production expected in the first half of 2026. We’re now in late February 2026. No commercial shipment has been announced.
Jobs Created: Approximately 20 job listings are active on Indeed for the Stillwater facility. No public reporting confirms the 100 job threshold required by the state’s Closing Fund clawback has been met. The company has cycled through four CEOs since the 2022 announcement. Where will the 1099 contractors be born? Are they local Okies? Pay attention to that important note.
So here’s a company burning roughly $7-8 million per month in combined operating and capital costs, with zero revenue, accumulating losses, going concern warnings from auditors, production running three years behind the original 2023 promise, and a stock that keeps falling despite having hundreds of millions in cash and billions more committed.
The finance commenters can’t figure out why the stock is down. Wall Street knows exactly why.
Five Years of “Next Quarter” Promises
The most damning detail in USA Rare Earth’s financial story isn’t the losses or the zero revenue or even the $8.2 million in Oklahoma taxpayer money already spent. It’s the timeline.
The Stillwater magnet facility was supposed to begin production in 2023 according to the June 2022 announcement. But the production promises actually started even earlier. Internal company projections dating to 2021 targeted late 2021 for Stillwater startup. When that didn’t happen, the target moved to mid 2022. Then 2023. Then 2024. Then 2025.
As of January 2026, the facility is in “commissioning phase” with commercial production targeted for “early 2026” or “first half 2026.”
We’re now in late February 2026. The facility has not announced commercial production. The Motley Fool article from February 17 still refers to operations “expected to begin in early 2026” as a future event, not an accomplished fact.
Five years of “next quarter” promises. Five years of Stillwater waiting for the jobs and tax revenue they were promised. Five years of investors funding a company that still hasn’t sold a single magnet commercially. Four years since Stillwater and Oklahoma committed $8.2 million in cash, all of it disbursed by April 2023, well before any production milestone was achieved.
Round Top mining in Texas faces similar timeline extensions. Originally projected to begin in 2023 when the Stillwater deal was announced, the target is now late 2028. That’s a five year extension. The company describes this as “two years earlier than previously anticipated,” which means internal forecasts had slipped to 2030 before being pulled back to 2028.
The Oklahoma Post documented these timeline failures in our January 26 article “The Art of the Rare Earth Deal: When CNBC Interviews Meet Reality.” What we didn’t emphasize enough: a company that has never hit a production target is now asking investors to believe it will execute a multi billion dollar mine construction and processing facility build out on an accelerated schedule.
The stock market is not buying it. Neither should Stillwater taxpayers.
The Clawback Nobody’s Enforcing
Both the city’s $7 million TIF agreement and the state’s $1.2 million Closing Fund deal contain clawback provisions. If USA Rare Earth fails to meet specified investment and job creation thresholds, the money can theoretically be reclaimed.
The city’s TIF Agreement sets development phase deadlines of March 31, 2026 and June 30, 2027. Miss those deadlines and the Stillwater Economic Development Authority “may terminate the agreement and demand immediate repayment of the full $7.0 million.” The agreement includes language allowing “agreed extensions and certain exceptions,” which potentially gives the company significant flexibility.
The state’s Closing Fund clawback requires repayment if the company fails to invest over $50 million and create at least 100 jobs at specified wages.
March 31, 2026 is five weeks away. Has USA Rare Earth met its development phase commitments? Has the company created 100 jobs? Has it invested $50 million in qualifying improvements beyond the $9.9 million building purchase?
No public reporting answers these questions. The Oklahoma Post filed a public records request with the City of Stillwater in May 2025 seeking details on the USA Rare Earth incentive package and compliance monitoring. Mayor Joyce refused to provide the records, according to our previous reporting.
On May 16, 2025, an anonymous whistleblower filed a request with Oklahoma State Auditor Cindy Byrd for an audit of the public funds and incentives provided to USA Rare Earth, alleging the deal contains no enforceable binding job quotas. The auditor’s response, if any, has not been made public.
Here’s the practical problem with clawbacks: they’re almost never enforced. Municipalities and states hate admitting they made bad bets with taxpayer money. The optics of demanding repayment from a company with “national security importance” and $1.6 billion in federal backing are terrible. And there’s always the argument that enforcement would kill the project entirely, destroying any chance of eventual success.
So the deadlines get extended. The job requirements get quietly waived. The investment thresholds get redefined. And the taxpayer money already spent stays spent.
Stillwater and Oklahoma committed $8.2 million in direct cash to USA Rare Earth by April 2023. That money is gone. The question is whether anything of value will eventually materialize in return.
What the Government Actually Gave Them
The January 26, 2026 federal announcement needs careful parsing, because the headlines obscured what USA Rare Earth actually received.
The “$277 million in federal funding” is not cash. It’s an equity swap. The government receives 16.1 million shares of common stock at $17.17 per share (a 25% discount to the prior Friday’s close) plus 17.6 million warrants. The SEC filing states the government “will retain 100% of such equity securities whether or not the Expected U.S. Government Transaction is funded in full or at all.”
Translation: the government takes dilution immediately, but might not deliver the full $277 million. Taxpayers get the downside risk either way.
The $1.3 billion loan is senior secured debt tied to milestone achievements: completing a feasibility study by 2027, constructing Round Top mine, and commissioning production facilities through 2028. Miss those milestones by more than two years and the government can claw it all back. The loan doesn’t fund until milestones are hit.
Given USA Rare Earth’s track record on timelines (Stillwater production promised in 2023, still not operating in 2026; Round Top mining promised in 2023, now targeted for 2028), the odds of hitting government milestone targets without delays are questionable at best.
The $1.5 billion PIPE closed on January 28, 2026, bringing in actual capital. But the PIPE was anchored by Inflection Point, the same SPAC that took USA Rare Earth public in March 2025. Michael Blitzer chairs both Inflection Point and USA Rare Earth. He sold $32.95 million in company stock in August 2025, then his SPAC anchored the January 2026 PIPE at prices 36% higher than his summer sales. Cantor Fitzgerald, whose chairman is Brandon Lutnick (son of Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick who announced the government deal), placed the transaction.
It’s the kind of interconnected financing that makes cynical observers wonder if the “many times oversubscribed” PIPE was less about market demand and more about related parties recycling capital through complex structures.
The Finance Reality Check
The Yahoo Finance comment section for USAR provides a window into retail investor psychology. These are actual quotes from screenshots taken February 20, 2026:
User “Olivia”: “Do you remember me telling you when this stock was $23 that it was worthless? CFO wanted to make some quick money by buying 100k of this, he gave 500k to people without any problems, I took 20k of it myself by short sale”
This comment, if true, suggests insider selling and short selling based on knowledge that the stock was overvalued. The market cap at $23 per share was approximately $4 billion for a company with zero revenue and going concern warnings. That’s not a valuation, it’s a meme.
Another user: “Yup, the downward pressure seems to be coming from activist investor shorting the whole US Rare Earth sector. Seems they have been up to it since right around Jan 30th.”
This reveals the conspiracy thinking that emerges when investors can’t reconcile falling prices with positive sounding news. Rather than accept that business fundamentals don’t support the valuation, investors blame “activist investors” and market manipulation.
A third comment references tariff policy: “tariffs refund…don’t think the US will funding on rare earth ….no wonder why they keep exiting….good luck”
This one actually touches on real issues. The tariff and price floor policies announced by Vice President Vance on February 5 caused rare earth stocks to crash because investors understood the implications: USA Rare Earth needs permanent government price manipulation to compete. Without those price floors, Chinese rare earths undercut American production and the business model collapses.
One user noted: “Earning announced report on Thursday 2/26/26”
USA Rare Earth is scheduled to report Q4 2025 and full year 2025 results on February 26, 2026. Based on preliminary guidance, those results will show: zero revenue, $56-62 million in operating losses, over $350 million in cash, no commercial magnet production from Stillwater, no mining operations at Round Top, continued going concern warnings.
That’s not an earnings report. That’s a progress update on a very expensive science project funded by Stillwater taxpayers, Oklahoma taxpayers, federal taxpayers, and speculative investors.
The one-month chart from MSN Money shows the steady deterioration: from a peak near $22.71 in late January following the federal funding announcement, the stock has declined 24.13% through February 20, erasing all gains from the government subsidy news and then some.
When Criticism Becomes Official Business
Mayor Joyce’s approach to transparency regarding USA Rare Earth extends beyond refusing FOIA requests. On July 29, 2022, less than two months after announcing the $7 million subsidy deal, Mayor Joyce used his official verified mayoral Facebook account to attack The Oklahoma Post’s credibility.
“I’ve received a few questions about a recent story from a website called ‘The Oklahoma Post,'” Joyce wrote in the public post. “First off, I think it’s important to note that this is not an established, reputable news source. The website seems to be owned and controlled by one of the people who has filed numerous claims about his various legal proceedings. The fact that this connection is not disclosed in the story (and is pretty carefully concealed overall) tells you all you need to know about the credibility and journalistic integrity of the publication.”
The post, which received 140 likes and 160 comments, made no mention of USA Rare Earth, the $7 million TIF agreement, or any specific factual errors in The Oklahoma Post’s reporting. Instead, it focused entirely on attacking the publication’s credibility through ad hominem arguments about ownership and editorial independence.
When commenter Jason Gomez asked “So the conversation that took place is fake?” Mayor Joyce responded: “I didn’t listen to the audio in the story, but I’m not aware of any conversations that would contradict my statement above.”
The mayor’s statement raises several problems. First, using an official government social media account to discredit media coverage of a public subsidy deal creates potential First Amendment issues. Elected officials retain free speech rights, but using the authority and platform of public office to delegitimize journalism investigating government expenditures crosses ethical lines.
Second, the attack came just seven weeks after the USA Rare Earth deal closed. The timing suggests sensitivity to scrutiny rather than concern about factual accuracy. If The Oklahoma Post’s reporting contained errors regarding the $7 million subsidy, the mayor’s response should have identified specific inaccuracies and provided corrections. Instead, he attacked the messenger.
Third, the mayor’s admission that he “didn’t listen to the audio in the story” while simultaneously questioning whether documented conversations were “fake” demonstrates a remarkable lack of due diligence before using official channels to attack media coverage. You can’t credibly question the authenticity of evidence you haven’t reviewed.
The Facebook post remains public as of February 2026, serving as a permanent official record of the mayor’s response to journalism examining the USA Rare Earth deal. What it doesn’t contain: any update on whether the company has met the March 31, 2026 development deadline now five weeks away. Any acknowledgment that production promised for 2023 still hasn’t begun in 2026. Any transparency about job creation progress toward the 100 employee threshold required for state clawbacks.
When public officials spend more energy attacking journalists than answering questions about how $7 million in taxpayer money is being spent, it tells you something. Usually, it tells you the questions are worth asking.
What Mayor Joyce Isn’t Saying
Mayor Will Joyce has remained conspicuously quiet about USA Rare Earth’s performance since the June 2022 announcement. No public statements address the three year production delay. No updates on job creation progress. No acknowledgment that the March 31, 2026 development phase deadline is five weeks away.
According to reporting by the Oklahoma Post in May 2025, Mayor Joyce attacked our publication and refused Freedom of Information Act requests regarding the USA Rare Earth deal. When your response to accountability journalism is to refuse public records requests, it suggests concern about what those records would reveal.
The city’s $7 million is secured by a first lien on the property. In theory, if USA Rare Earth completely fails, Stillwater could foreclose and recoup some value by selling the facility. In practice, who wants to buy a 310,000 square foot industrial building specifically retrofitted for rare earth magnet manufacturing if the only company trying to do rare earth magnet manufacturing in America has just failed?
The facility cost USA Rare Earth $9.9 million to purchase in 2022. Add renovation costs and the company has invested considerably more. But specialized industrial facilities often sell for pennies on the dollar in bankruptcy. The city’s $7 million first lien might recover $3-4 million in a distressed sale. Maybe less.
Meanwhile, the five year property tax exemption and 90% TIF rebate continue to benefit USA Rare Earth while generating zero tax revenue for Stillwater. The city invested $7 million and gave up millions more in foregone property taxes, betting that 100 jobs at $60,000+ median wages would generate enough economic activity to justify the subsidy.
Four years later: no commercial production, job creation status unclear, timeline three years behind schedule, stock price down 61% despite billions in government backing.
That’s not the story Mayor Joyce and Governor Stitt told in June 2022.
The Short Seller Angle
One Yahoo commenter blamed short sellers for the stock decline. Let’s examine that claim.
USA Rare Earth’s stock chart shows a peak of $43.98 on October 13, 2025, then a steady decline to current levels around $17. That’s a 61% decline over roughly four months. During the same period, the company announced multiple supposedly positive developments: discussions with Trump administration about equity stake, acceleration of Round Top production timeline, selection of engineering partners, $1.6 billion government Letter of Intent, $1.5 billion PIPE.
These are supposedly good news events. Yet the stock kept falling.
Short sellers didn’t cause this decline. Short sellers bet on this decline because they read the financial statements and understood the disconnect between valuation and reality. A company with zero revenue, going concern warnings, five years of missed production targets (including three years since taking $8.2 million from Oklahoma taxpayers), unproven low grade ore deposits, and a business model requiring permanent government price support is not worth $4 billion.
At the October peak of $43.98, USA Rare Earth had a market capitalization approaching $7 billion. For comparison, MP Materials, the only operating rare earth mine in North America with actual revenue, was valued at roughly $3-4 billion. The market was valuing a pre revenue, pre production company at nearly double the value of its only operating domestic competitor.
Short sellers didn’t create that absurdity. Hype did. Government announcements did. Retail investors piling into a “strategic national security play” did. Short sellers just recognized the gap between promotion and reality and profited from the inevitable correction.
What the February 26 Earnings Will Show
On February 26, 2026, USA Rare Earth will report Q4 and full year 2025 results. Here’s what we already know from their preliminary guidance:
Revenue: $0
Operating Loss: $56-62 million for full year 2025
Cash: Over $350 million as of December 31, 2025 (much higher now post PIPE closing)
Production Status: Still in commissioning at Stillwater, no commercial operations
Round Top Status: Still in pre development, feasibility study targeted for 2027
What the company will emphasize: the $3.1 billion in combined government and private funding, engineering partnerships with Fluor and WSP, strategic importance of domestic rare earth production, accelerated timeline for Round Top production.
What the company will downplay: the five year delay in Stillwater production (three years since the 2022 Oklahoma subsidy announcement and promised 2023 startup), zero revenue despite hundreds of millions in capital deployed, going concern warnings, the fact that Round Top is still 2+ years from even beginning mining operations, the March 31, 2026 city development deadline that’s five weeks away.
The stock’s reaction will depend on whether investors focus on future promises or current reality. Given that the stock has fallen 30%+ since the January government funding announcement despite what should have been great news, the market seems to be leaning toward skepticism.
Stillwater’s $7 Million Question
For Stillwater taxpayers who committed $7 million plus millions more in tax benefits to USA Rare Earth’s magnet facility, the February 26 earnings report should prompt serious questions.
The city invested based on promises of domestic rare earth manufacturing creating jobs and tax revenue starting in 2023. It’s now 2026. The facility still hasn’t begun commercial production. The company has never generated revenue. Auditors express going concern doubts. The stock has crashed 61% from recent highs despite massive government funding. Four CEOs have come and gone.
The timeline for Round Top mining providing domestic feedstock has extended to late 2028, meaning even if Stillwater’s facility starts production in 2026, it will source rare earth materials from third parties (read: imports from China) for at least 2+ years.
The extraction technology changed from proprietary Continuous Ion Exchange to standard solvent extraction. The strategic focus shifted from light rare earths for magnets to heavy rare earths and critical minerals like hafnium and zirconium. The business model now requires government mandated price floors enforced through tariffs.
Every one of these changes adds risk and complexity to Stillwater’s investment. The city bet $7 million on a straightforward story: domestic mine feeds domestic magnet plant, creating jobs and economic activity. The reality has become considerably more complicated.
More fundamentally, Stillwater’s development deadline is March 31, 2026. That’s five weeks away. Has USA Rare Earth commenced the development phases required by the TIF Agreement? If not, will the city enforce the clawback provision and demand immediate repayment of $7 million? Or will officials quietly grant an extension, avoiding the political embarrassment of admitting the deal hasn’t delivered?
The silence from city officials suggests the latter. No news is bad news when public money and accountability are involved.
The Analyst Projections Problem
The Motley Fool article cites analyst projections of $50 million in revenue for 2026 and $281 million in 2027. These projections deserve scrutiny.
The $50 million in 2026 revenue assumes Stillwater facility begins commercial production and achieves meaningful output within the year. Given that the facility was supposed to start production in 2023 and still hasn’t as of February 2026, betting on substantial 2026 revenue requires faith in timeline execution that the company has never demonstrated.
The $281 million in 2027 revenue implies dramatic scaling from zero to hundreds of millions in sales within two years. This assumes: Stillwater reaches full capacity quickly, the company secures customers at prices that generate those revenue levels, quality and reliability issues don’t delay ramp up, the company successfully sources rare earth feedstock at costs that allow profitable pricing.
Every one of those assumptions is questionable given the company’s track record.
More fundamentally, revenue projections don’t matter if the business can’t generate profit. The company is projecting 2026 revenue of $50 million against operating expenses of $56-62 million in 2025. Even if revenue materializes, losses will likely continue until the company reaches much higher scale.
Analysts projecting future revenue for pre production companies is standard practice. Investors treating those projections as facts rather than speculative forecasts is where problems emerge. USA Rare Earth’s stock decline suggests the market is discounting analyst optimism heavily.
Stillwater and Oklahoma didn’t invest $8.2 million based on analyst projections. They invested based on promises: 2023 production, 100+ jobs, $100 million investment, economic transformation. Three years later, none of those promises have fully materialized.
The Real Problem Nobody Wants to Admit
Here’s the uncomfortable truth that finance commenters, USA Rare Earth management, Stillwater officials, Oklahoma state leaders, and even many Wall Street analysts avoid stating directly:
American rare earth production may not be economically viable without permanent, massive government subsidies.
China controls 70% of global rare earth mining and 90% of processing not because of unfair trade practices or subsidies, but because they industrialized these processes decades ago, accepted environmental degradation Western countries won’t tolerate, and achieved economies of scale through sustained investment.
USA Rare Earth’s Round Top deposit has ore grades of 0.03-0.06% Total Rare Earth Oxide. MP Materials’ Mountain Pass operates at 5.98% TREO, roughly 100 times higher. Lower ore grades mean higher extraction costs per kilogram of rare earth produced.
The company switched from proprietary CIX technology to standard solvent extraction because the proprietary approach probably wouldn’t scale economically. Solvent extraction is chemically intensive, environmentally challenging, and expensive. It’s also proven and understood, which is why China uses it. This will be performed in Texas.
Even with billions in government funding, proven extraction technology, and $3.1 billion in combined capital, USA Rare Earth still can’t predict profitability. The business model now requires the Trump administration’s price floor proposal to prevent Chinese rare earths from undercutting American production. Sounds like a permanent subsidy program with a stock ticker.
The market understands this. The stock price reflects it. Retail investors in finance comment sections blame short sellers and conspiracy theories because accepting the fundamental reality, that this business may never generate sustainable profits without government support, would mean acknowledging their investment thesis was wrong.
It would also mean Stillwater and Oklahoma invested $8.2 million in a company whose survival depends on federal policy decisions beyond local control.
What Happens Next
USA Rare Earth faces several critical milestones in 2026:
February 26: Q4 and full year 2025 earnings report. Will reveal whether Stillwater has begun commercial production or remains in “commissioning.”
March 31: City of Stillwater development phase deadline per TIF Agreement. Either USA Rare Earth meets the requirements, gets an extension, or faces potential $7 million clawback.
Q1 2026: Company guidance states Stillwater facility commissioning should complete in Q1 2026. We’re in late February, so this milestone is imminent. Either production starts or the company revises targets again.
Throughout 2026: Company must demonstrate that $3.1 billion in funding translates into operational progress. Investors will watch for: commercial magnet sales from Stillwater, progress on Round Top feasibility study, customer announcements, actual revenue generation.
2027: Feasibility study for Round Top due. This will determine whether the mine proceeds to construction or gets delayed further. Also the June 30, 2027 advanced development completion deadline per the city’s TIF Agreement.
2028: Round Top commercial production targeted for late 2028. This is the endgame for the “mine to magnet” story.
The stock’s performance will track against these milestones. Miss the Q1 2026 Stillwater target? Stock falls. Report zero revenue again in Q2 2026? Stock falls. Delay the Round Top feasibility study? Stock falls. Fail to meet the city’s March 31 deadline and get quietly granted an extension? That probably won’t affect the stock much, but it should concern Stillwater taxpayers.
Conversely, actually beginning commercial production at Stillwater and generating first revenue would likely boost the stock significantly. The market would reward execution over promises.
The problem for USA Rare Earth is that they’ve been promising execution for five years without delivering. At some point, credibility erodes beyond repair.
Publics Right To Know
Comment sections tell a story of retail investor confusion. Conspiracy theories about short sellers. Speculation about insider selling. Complaints about tariff policy uncertainty. Frustration that the stock keeps falling despite “good news.”
What the comments miss: the fundamentals.
Zero revenue after five years and billions in capital deployed is not normal. Going concern warnings from auditors are not bullish signals. Production facilities that remain in “commissioning” for years are red flags. Ore deposits requiring government price floors to compete economically are questionable investments.
Taking $8.2 million from Oklahoma taxpayers in 2022 with promises of 2023 production and 100+ jobs, then delivering neither three years later, is a problem. Especially when all that money was disbursed by April 2023, well before any production milestone was achieved.
USA Rare Earth has $7 million from Stillwater, $1.2 million from Oklahoma, up to $2.8 million in potential Quality Jobs rebates if they ever create the promised employment, $277 million in federal funding (actually equity dilution), $1.6 billion in federal loan commitments, $1.5 billion from private investors, and zero dollars in revenue. The stock has fallen 61% from its recent peak. Retail investors blame market manipulation. Wall Street looks at the financials and sees a pre revenue company burning cash while making promises it has repeatedly failed to keep.
Stillwater’s $7 million investment depends on this company finally executing on promises first made in 2021, formally committed in 2022, and still unfulfilled in 2026. The March 31 development deadline is five weeks away. The city has been silent about compliance monitoring and clawback enforcement.
February 26’s earnings report will show whether execution is beginning or whether taxpayers should prepare for another quarter of zero revenue, continued losses, and revised timelines.
The finance comments asking “why does this stock keep falling?” have a simple answer, though it’s not the one investors want to hear: the market doesn’t believe the story anymore. Not because of short sellers or conspiracy theories, but because after five years of promises and billions in funding from local, state, federal, and private sources, USA Rare Earth still hasn’t sold a single magnet.
Writing By: Pete Rashard| Editing by Robbie Robertson
Editor’s Note:
Sources
Financial Filings and Reports:
MSN Money: USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) stock price and chart (accessed February 22, 2026) https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/
USA Rare Earth Q3 2025 Form 10-Q (filed November 2025)
USA Rare Earth Form 10-K (filed March 31, 2025) https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1970622/000121390025026445/ea0236222-10k_usarare.htm
USA Rare Earth Preliminary Q4 2025 Financial Highlights (January 26, 2026) https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/01/26/3225497/0/en/USA-Rare-Earth-Announces-Letter-of-Intent-with-the-U-S-Government-for-Access-to-1-6-Billion-in-Funding-to-Accelerate-the-Domestic-Heavy-Rare-Earth-Value-Chain.html
Quartr: USA Rare Earth Investor Relations Summary https://quartr.com/companies/usa-rare-earth-inc_20434
State and Local Subsidies:
Oklahoma Department of Commerce: “Governor Stitt, Department of Commerce Secure First Domestic Rare Earth Metal and Magnet Manufacturing Facility” (June 9, 2022) https://www.okcommerce.gov/governor-stitt-department-of-commerce-secure-first-domestic-rare-earth-metal-and-magnet-manufacturing-facility/
City of Stillwater: “$7 million incentive for USA Rare Earth manufacturing facility” (June 6, 2022) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/city-stillwater-approves-7-million-050900312.html
KOSU: “Oklahoma officials announce a $100 million, high tech factory is coming to Stillwater” (June 9, 2022) https://www.kosu.org/business/2022-06-09/oklahoma-officials-announce-a-100-million-high-tech-factory-is-coming-to-stillwater
Greater Oklahoma City Economic Development: “Critical minerals company coming to Stillwater” (June 22, 2022) https://www.greateroklahomacity.com/news/2022/06/22/manufacturing/critical-minerals-company-coming-to-stillwater/
Market Analysis:
The Motley Fool: “The U.S. Government Is Investing $1.6 Billion in USA Rare Earth. Does That Make the Stock a Buy?” (February 17, 2026) https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/02/17/the-us-government-is-investing-16-billion-in-usar/
Stock Titan: “USA Rare Earth targets $3.1B CHIPS and PIPE financing” (January 26, 2026) https://www.stocktitan.net/news/USAR/usa-rare-earth-announces-letter-of-intent-with-the-u-s-government-39ie1kcmkzrr.html
Bloomberg: “USA Rare Earth Lines Up $1.6 Billion in US Government Funding” (January 26, 2026)
Federal Policy:
Vice President JD Vance remarks at Critical Minerals Ministerial (February 5, 2026)
Seeking Alpha: “Rare earth stocks sink as Trump administration floats tariffs to implement price floor” (February 4, 2026) https://seekingalpha.com/news/4547581-rare-earth-stocks-sink-as-trump-administration-floats-tariffs-to-implement-price-floor
Local Coverage:
The Stillwegian: “USA Rare Earth gets $1.6B for Stillwater magnet facility” (January 2026) https://www.thestillwegian.news/usa-rare-earth-secures-1-6-billion-in-federal-funding-for-stillwater-magnet-plant/
OK Energy Today: “Stillwater USA Rare Earth Wins Major Federal CHIPS Support” (January 2026) https://www.okenergytoday.com/2026/01/stillwater-usa-rare-earth-chips-support/
Stock Data:
Yahoo Finance: USA Rare Earth (USAR) stock data and community comments (February 2026)
MacroTrends: USA Rare Earth Revenue 2024-2025 https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/USAR/usa-rare-earth/revenue
Previous Oklahoma Post Coverage:
“Stillwater’s Magnet USAR Facility Deal: Wall Street Wins, Oklahoma Loses” (May 16, 2025) https://theokpost.com/news/business/stillwaters-magnet-usar-facility-deal-wall-street-wins-oklahoma-loses/2025/05/16/
“While MP Materials Hits Jackpot, USAR Goes Broker Than Uncle Rico” (August 12, 2025)
“The Art of the Rare Earth Deal: When CNBC Interviews Meet Reality” (January 26, 2026)
“Price Floors and Reality Checks: Why USA Rare Earth Stock Tanked When Trump Announced the Plan We Predicted” (February 2026)
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